2021 On-premise and food service beverage challenges in the U.S.

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2021 On-premise and food service beverage challenges in the U.S.

3 main questions

5 key factors

4 time scenarios

Temporary trends

2 mega trends and 3 market opportunities

3 actions to take now

3 main questions

1. Will 2021 see a foodservice/on-premise re-bound?

  • What factors drive the speed and shape of a potential 2021 Foodservice/on-premise re-bound?
  • What rebound scenarios and timings are most likely?

2. What does Foodservice/on-premise look like in the next normal?

  • Which consumption trends will stick after the pandemic, and which will fade back to the way things were before?
  • What will the new Foodservice/on-premise channel landscape looks like?

3. What actions can be taken now to create competitive advantage and capture market share?

  • How move fast to take advantage of the new market landscape?
  • How grow/expand footprint in online delivery?
  • How innovate to capture new consumer spend?

Speed of re-opening: 5 key factors

Q1 BUNGLED SMOO TH V ACCINE ROL L OU T Q2 Q3 Q4 BE T TER IN SUMMER NO T SEASONAL SEASONALIT Y APPROPRIA TE T OO TIG H T GO VERNMEN T RESTRI C TIONS DISCIPLINED CABIN FEVER! CITIZENP A TIENCE NO T MORE CON T AGIOUS, DEAD L Y , OR RESIS T AN T NEW V ARIAN T S MORE CON T AGIOUS, DEAD L Y , OR RESIS T AN T EXTENSIVE L OCK DOWN Most consumer choosing t o stay home He a vy restrictions in place ac r oss many states PA R TIAL RE-OPENING Many consumer getting out of the home Mixed restrictions ac r oss the country: some states returning t o fully open Outdoor dining commonplace FULL & BRO AD RE-OPENING Most consumers returning t o restau r ants & bars Limited restrictions isolated t o individual states Indoor dining commonplace ST AGES OF REOPENING Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul A ug Sep Oct No v Dec

4 timing scenarios food for thought

RO ARING R E TURN MEASURED SL OW MIS-STEP Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul A ug Sep Oct No v Dec RO ARING R E TURN MEASURED MIS-STEP SL OW

Temporary trends or new normal?

NEW OCCASION TRENDS NEW CH ANNEL GEOGRAP H Y TRENDS ELEV A TED OU T OF HOME EXPERIENCES PREFER THE “NEW” A T -HOME OCCASION ONLINE FOODDELIVE R Y EV O L VING OUTL E T UNIVERSE BOOM INLIFES T YLE CITIES Consumer will be lured out by el e v ated experiences that are difficult t o replicate at home Consumers h a ve learned t o make cocktails, enjoy wine, and cook new recipes Many will incorpo r ate these occasions in t o their lifestyle Access t o delivery se r vices p r o vide (i) convenience & (ii) el e v ated at home occasion Chains t o capitalize (Chili ’ s, Just Wings, etc) Numer ous bars & restau r antes h a ve closed, many permanently New locations will be opening ac r oss the country Ex odus f r om t r aditional “young p r ofessional” cities (S F , N Y , Chicago, etc) Lifestyle and cost of living driven g r owth of lifestyle cities (Boulde r , A ustin, Bend, etc) Bar , restau r ant, and culture scenes surging New “delivery- focused” independents t o thrive (ghost kitchens, etc)

At least 2 mega trends and 3 market opportunities emerging…?

TEMPORARY NICHES MARKET OPPORTUNITIES CAPTURE THE MOMENT MEGA TRENDS P E R MA N E N C E CO N S U M E R A D OP T I O N / I M P A CT FE W C O N S U M E R S M A N Y C O N S U M E R S TE M P O R A R Y T R E N D HE R E T O S T A Y O n li n e Foo d Deli v e r y E le v a t e d Out of Ho m e Exp e r i e nc e s B oo m i n L i f e sty l e C i t ie s Evolving O ut le t U n i v e r se P r e f e r the “ N e w ” At-Home O ccas i on K E Y OCC A S IO N B A S ED T RE N D S C H A NN EL & GEOG R AP HY T RE N D S

3 actions to take now to win in the new normal

ma p ne w m a r k e t lan dsc a pe m o v e f a s t t o bu il d lo c a l c o n n e ct i o n s 1 R e a llo c at e d fi e l d fo rc e a n d s pen d Ou t l e t / ne i g hb o rh o o d a c t i v at io n p l a n s Hi g h i n fl uence a cc o un t ta r g e t i n g E volvi n g Ou t le t U n iver s e B oo m i n L ife s t y le C i t ies
Online Food Delivery define online delivery strategy run pilots, test, learn and capture growth in new channel 2 TBC TBC TBC
innovate to win experience-led occasions capture new consumer spend 3 Elevated & accessible at-home offerings Elevated Outof Home Experiences

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  • On 5 May 2021

Human Factor is a field of knowledge developed by researchers and authors Luis Antonio Ervolino, Ph.D., and Amelia de Carvalho e Silva, M.A., and applied and licensed by Integration through the company Factor Humanus Scientia as the ID One Methodology® – Human Factor.

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